Published 17 August, 2023

The 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is currently in progress, and this page will be updated as details and results become available.

AI Impacts is preparing to run the 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI (2023 ESPAI).

The 2023 ESPAI will be a rerun of the 2022 ESPAI and the 2016 ESPAI, previous surveys ran by AI Impacts in collaboration with others. Almost all of the questions in the 2023 ESPAI will be identical to those in both the 2022 ESPAI and 2016 ESPAI.

For all authors who published at a selection of top-tier machine learning conferences in 2022 (including ICML, NeurIPS, and others to be determined), we will contact those whose email addresses we can find. A resulting list of 20066 emails was randomized using Google Sheets' “Randomize range” feature. The first 1003 emails from the list (about 5% of the total) were assigned to a pilot study group to receive payment for participating, and the second 1003 emails from the list were assigned to a pilot study group to not receive payment for participating. The remainder of the emails were assigned to the main survey group.

As in the previous expert surveys conducted by AI Impacts, different phrasings of some questions will be randomly assigned to each respondent to measure the effects of framing differences. Each participant will also received a randomized subset of certain question types and questions within certain types.

These things are expected to be different from the 2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI

• Participants from more venues
• Order of questions (demographics moved to the start)
• Addition of extinction risk question with timeframe