ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai
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ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai [2024/01/08 07:56] katjagrace [Background] |
ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai [2024/01/30 01:17] (current) harlanstewart |
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| ====== 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI ====== | ====== 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI ====== | ||
| - | // Published 17 August, 2023. Last updated | + | // Published 17 August, 2023. Last updated |
| The 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of 2,778 AI researchers that AI Impacts ran in October 2023. | The 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of 2,778 AI researchers that AI Impacts ran in October 2023. | ||
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| === Changes from 2016 and 2022 ESPAI surveys === | === Changes from 2016 and 2022 ESPAI surveys === | ||
| - | These are some notable differences from the 2022 [[ai_timelines: | + | These are some notable differences from the [[ai_timelines: |
| * We recruited participants from twice as many conferences as in 2022. | * We recruited participants from twice as many conferences as in 2022. | ||
| * We made some changes to the order and flow of the questions. | * We made some changes to the order and flow of the questions. | ||
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| {{: | {{: | ||
| + | |||
| + | ====Frequently asked questions==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | ===How does the seniority of the participants affect the results?=== | ||
| + | |||
| + | One reasonable concern about an expert survey might be that more senior experts are busier and less likely to participate in a survey. We found that authors with over 1000 citations were 69% as likely to participate in the survey as the base rate among those we contacted. We found that differences in seniority had little effect on opinions about the likelihood that HLMI would lead to impacts that were " | ||
| + | |||
| + | ^Group^% who gave at least 5% odds to " | ||
| + | |All participants|57.80%| | ||
| + | |Has 100+ citations|62.30%| | ||
| + | |Has 1000+ citations|59.00%| | ||
| + | |Has 10,000+ citations|56.30%| | ||
| + | |Started PhD by 2018|58.80%| | ||
| + | |Started PhD by 2013|58.50%| | ||
| + | |Started PhD by 2003|54.70%| | ||
| + | |In current field 5+ years|54.40%| | ||
| + | |In current field 10+ years|51.40%| | ||
| + | |In current field 20+ years|48.00%| | ||
| ====Contributions==== | ====Contributions==== | ||
ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai.1704700578.txt.gz · Last modified: 2024/01/08 07:56 by katjagrace
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