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AI Timeline Prediction Markets
Prediction markets and aggregators incentivize forecasters to make good predictions. The predictions made in a prediction market or aggregator can be aggregated into a single prediction. Markets and aggregators often work well for making good predictions but also have limitations. As of this writing, the aggregator Metaculus as well as two prediction markets on Manifold predict that human-level AI will arrive in the 2030s.
Details
How useful are prediction markets and aggregators for AI timelines?
Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the outcome of an event. Prediction markets, and prediction aggregators such as Metaculus, incentivize participants to make good predictions. When the prices of binary options in prediction markets are treated as probabilities, these probabilities sometimes closely match the real frequency of the predicted outcome. However, one limitation of prediction markets is that they cannot incentivize correct predictions where the predicted outcome prevents a payout. Because many believe that human-level AI might lead to human extinction, prediction markets may not work as well for AI timelines as for other questions.
Metaculus
Rather than a market, Metaculus is a reputation-based prediction aggregation engine that uses a scoring system to incentivize accurate predictions and to track participants' performance over time. Forecasters' predictions are aggregated into a “community prediction” that is calculated using a model that weights each users' predictions differently.
Below is a summary of Metaculus predictions for "When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?".
Manifold Markets
Manifold Markets is a prediction market that uses a virtual currency called Mana. Users can buy Mana using real currency and earn Mana by participating on the platform. Mana cannot be withdrawn from the platform, but can be charitably donated to nonprofits of the user's choice.
We know of two user-created markets on Manifold about the year in which human-level AI will arrive. Unfortunately, these markets have relatively few (13 & 14) bettors at the time of this writing.
