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ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_prediction_markets [2023/05/02 17:45] harlanstewart |
ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_prediction_markets [2024/01/29 22:33] (current) harlanstewart |
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====== AI Timeline Prediction Markets ====== | ====== AI Timeline Prediction Markets ====== | ||
- | Prediction markets and aggregators incentivize forecasters to make good predictions. The predictions made in a prediction market or aggregator can be aggregated into a single prediction. Markets and aggregators often work well for making good predictions but also have limitations. | + | As of this page's last update on January 29 2024, prediction markets |
===== Details ===== | ===== Details ===== | ||
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[[https:// | [[https:// | ||
- | We know of two user-created markets on Manifold about the year in which human-level AI will arrive. Unfortunately, | + | We know of two user-created markets on Manifold about the year in which human-level AI will arrive. Unfortunately, |
< | < |