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Welcome to the AI Impacts Wiki!
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Complete list of pages, in order of most recently modified to least recently modified
List of AI Impacts' citations
Surveys of public opinion on AI
Views of prominent AI developers on risk from AI
2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI
Capabilities of state-of-the-art AI, 2024
How much computing capacity exists in GPUs and TPUs in Q1 2023?
Surveys of US public opinion on AI
AI Timeline Surveys
AI Risk Surveys
AI Timeline Prediction Markets
Examples of Warning Signs
Quantitative Estimates of AI Risk
Collected empirical evidence for misalignment and power-seeking behavior in AI
Examples of Regulated Things
Interviews on the strength of the evidence for AI risk claims
Resisted Technological Temptation: Geoengineering
Resisted Technological Temptations Project
Interview on the strength of the evidence for AI risk claims with an anonymous AI alignment researcher
Interview with Victoria Krakovna on the strength of the evidence for AI risk claims
Interview with Jacob Hilton on the strength of the evidence for AI risk claims
2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI
List of possible risks from AI
Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI
page_list
The range of human intelligence
Examples of Progress for a Particular Technology Stopping
Cognitive capabilities of insects
Affordances for AI labs
AI labs' statements on governance
March 2023 Recent trends in funding for AI companies
Factors that affect the price of GPUs
Predictions of Human-Level AI Timelines
Preliminary survey of prescient actions
AI Safety Arguments Affected by Chaos
Chaos in Humans
Resisted Technological Temptation: Vaccine Challenge Trials
Global computing capacity
Resisted Technological Temptation: Nuclear Power
Funding of AI Research
Historic trends in ship size
Bug List
Affordances for states
Argument for AI x-risk from large impacts
List of Analyses of Time to Human-Level AI
List of sources arguing for existential risk from AI
Do neural networks learn human concepts?
Solutions to common problems
2019 recent trends in GPU price per FLOPS
Fiction relevant to AI futurism
AI Vignettes Project
Historic trends in altitude
Time for AI to cross the human performance range in chess
Costs of extinction risk mitigation
Examples of early action on risks
How energy efficient are human-engineered flight designs relative to natural ones?
Energy efficiency of Airbus Zephyr S
Historic trends in manned altitude
Evidence against current methods leading to human level artificial intelligence
Katja Grace
Range of human performance
Artificial Intelligence
atest
Playground
Technical Details
Ben Weinstein-Raun
Promising research projects
Possible Empirical Investigations
AI Impacts key questions of interest
Hardware overhang
Energy efficiency of Airbus A320
Energy efficiency of Wright model B
Energy efficiency of monarch butterfly flight
Energy efficiency of Wright Flyer
Energy efficiency of Boeing 747-400
Energy efficiency of wandering albatross flight
Energy efficiency of MacCready Gossamer Albatross
Energy efficiency of Vickers Vimy plane
Energy efficiency of The Spirit of Butt’s Farm
Energy efficiency of paramotors
Energy efficiency of North American P-51 Mustang
Historic trends in the maximum superconducting temperature
AI Impacts 2020 review
Historic trends in land speed records
Examples of AI systems producing unconventional solutions
Penicillin and historic syphilis trends
Incomplete case studies of discontinuous progress
Historic trends in transatlantic passenger travel
Historic trends in transatlantic message speed
Historic trends in telecommunications performance
Historic trends in slow light technology
Historic trends in particle accelerator performance
Historic trends in long-range military payload delivery
Historic trends in light intensity
Historic trends in flight airspeed records
Methodology for discontinuous progress investigation
Historic trends in chess AI
Historic trends in bridge span length
Historic trends in book production
Effects of breech loading rifles on historic trends in firearm progress
Effect of nuclear weapons on historic trends in explosives
Effect of Eli Whitney’s cotton gin on historic trends in cotton ginning
Effect of AlexNet on historic trends in image recognition
Time for AI to cross the human range in StarCraft
Time for AI to cross the human range in English draughts
Time for AI to cross the human performance range in Go
Time for AI to cross the human performance range in diabetic retinopathy
Sources of advantage for digital agents over biological agents
Glossary of AI Risk Terminology and common AI terms
Time for AI to cross the human performance range in ImageNet image classification
Discontinuous progress investigation
MIRI AI Predictions Dataset
Investigation into the relationship between neuron count and intelligence across differing cortical architectures
Information storage in the brain
Historical economic growth trends
Guide to pages on AI timeline predictions
Group Differences in AI Predictions
Electrical efficiency of computing
Early Views of AI
Current FLOPS prices
The cost of TEPS
Returns to scale in research
Conversation with Steve Potter
Brain performance in TEPS
Brain performance in FLOPS
Trends in DRAM price per gigabyte
Price-performance trend in top supercomputers
Nordhaus hardware price performance dataset
2019 recent trends in Geekbench score per CPU price
Neuron firing rates in humans
Cost of human-level information storage
Conversation with Paul Christiano
AI Impacts research bounties
Conversation with Rohin Shah
Conversation with Robin Hanson
Conversation with Ernie Davis
Conversation with Adam Gleave
Human-Level AI
Stuart Russell’s description of AI risk
Cases of Discontinuous Technological Progress
List of sources arguing against existential risk from AI
Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project
Interviews on plausibility of AI safety by default
Incentives to create AI systems known to pose extinction risks
List of multipolar research projects
Precedents for economic n-year doubling before 4n-year doubling
Research topic: Hardware, software and AI
Kruel AI Interviews
Media discussion of 2016 ESPAI
Michie Survey
Klein AGI Survey
Müller and Bostrom AI Progress Poll
Hanson AI Expert Survey
Surveys on fractional progress towards HLAI
FHI Winter Intelligence Survey
Etzioni 2016 survey
Walsh 2017 survey
Concrete AI tasks for forecasting
Trends in algorithmic progress
Bainbridge Survey
Automation of music production
AI@50 Survey
AI Timeline predictions in surveys and statements
AGI-11 survey
AGI-09 Survey
2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI
2016 ESPAI questions printout
2016 ESPAI Narrow AI task forecast timeline
Coordinated human action as example of superhuman intelligence
Progress in general purpose factoring
AI conference attendance
Outcomes of inducement prizes
Accuracy of AI Predictions
2018 price of performance by Tensor Processing Units
Chance date bias
Costs of information storage
Transmitting fibers in the brain: Total length and distribution of lengths
Trends in the cost of computing
Scale of the Human Brain
Resolutions of mathematical conjectures over time
Was the industrial revolution a drastic departure from historic trends?
Wikipedia history of GFLOPS costs
Metabolic Estimates of Rate of Cortical Firing
Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near
Index of articles about hardware
Human-level hardware timeline
Historic trends in structure heights
Effect of marginal hardware on artificial general intelligence
Costs of human-level hardware
Publication biases toward shorter predictions
Conversation with Tom Griffiths
Computing hardware performance data collections
Comparison of naturally evolved and engineered solutions
Allen, The Singularity Isn’t Near
Trend in compute used in training for headline AI results
2017 trend in the cost of computing
2015 FLOPS prices
The Maes-Garreau Law
Similarity Between Historical and Contemporary AI Predictions
Selection bias from optimistic experts
What do coherence arguments imply about the behavior of advanced AI?
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· Last modified: 2023/09/18 22:30 by
harlanstewart
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